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“What would be more appropriate than for the world's leading energy company
and leading oil company to take the lead in trying to define whether a long-term CO2 problem really exists...”
W. N. Weinberg to E. J. Gornowski. 1978.
“The following are some grandiose thoughts on what we,
Exxon, might undertake to do in connection with the “CO2 problem.”
...This may be the kind of opportunity that we are looking for to have Exxon technology,
management and leadership resources put into the context of a project
aimed at benefitting mankind.”
W. N. Weinberg to E. J. Gornowski. 1978.
“they key thing would be to determine whether
we have a problem with CO2 or we don't and,
if we do, where the problem comes from.”
W. N. Weinberg to E. J. Gornowski. 1978.
“I have looked over the draft...
The only real problem I have
is with the second clause of the last sentence in the first paragraph:
“but changes of a magnitude well short of catastrophic...”
I think that this statement may be too reassuring...
it is distinctly possible that the CPD scenario
will later produce effects which will indeed be
(at least for a substantial fraction of the earth’s population).”
R. W. Cohen to W. Glass. 1981.
“ is very likely that we will unambiguously recognize the threat
by the year 2000 because of advances in climate modeling
and the beginning of real experimental confirmation of the CO2 effect.”
R. W. Cohen to W. Glass. 1981.
“I would feel more comfortable if the first paragraph
concluded with a statement to the effect that future developments
in global data gathering and analysis,
along with advances in climate modeling,
may provide strong evidence fro a delayed CO2 effect
of a truly substantial magnitude.”
R. W. Cohen to W. Glass. 1981.
“The models that appear more credible (to us)
do predict measurable changes in temperature,
rainfall pattern, and sea-level
by the year 2030 for the postulated fossil fuel combustion rates...”
“The fossil fuel contribution to the localized problem
of acid rain appears handlable by limiting the release of
SOx, NOx, and chlorides to the atmosphere—which would decrease
but by no means eliminate the economic advantage of fossil fuels.”
“The consensus is that a doubling of atmospheric CO2
from its pre-industrial revolution value
would result in an average global temperature rise of
(3.0 1.5) C.”
R. W. Cohen to A. M. Natkin. 1982.
“The uncertainty in this figure
is a result of the inability of even the most
elaborate models to simulate climate in a totally realistic manner.”
R. W. Cohen to A. M. Natkin. 1982.
“The temperature rise is predicted to be distributed
nonuniformly over the earth,
with above-average temperature elevations in the polar regions
and relatively small increases near the equator.”
R. W. Cohen to A. M. Natkin. 1982.
“The time require for doubling of atmospheric CO2
depends on future world consumption of fossil fuels.”
R. W. Cohen to A. M. Natkin. 1982.
“There is unanimous agreement in the scientific community
that a temperature increase of this magnitude
would be about significant changes in the earth’s climate,
including rainfall distribution and alterations in the biosphere.”
R. W. Cohen to A. M. Natkin. 1982.
“The models predict that CO2-induced climate changes
should be observable well before doubling.
It is generally believed that the first unambiguous
C)2-induced temperature increase will not be observable until around the year 2000.”
R. W. Cohen to A. M. Natkin. 1982
“...there is the potential for our research to attract
the attention of the popular news media
because of the connection between Exxon’s major business
and the role of fossil fuel combustion
in contributing to the increase of atmospheric CO2.
Despite the fact that our results are in accord with those of most researchers
in the field and are subject to the same uncertainties,
it was recognized that it is possible for these results to be distorted or blown out of proportion.”
R. W. Cohen to A. M. Natkin. 1982.>
“The material has been given wide circulation to Exxon management
and is intended to familiarize Exxon personnel with the subject.
It may be used as a basis for discussion the issue with outsiders as may be appropriate.
However, it should be restricted to Exxon personnel and not distributed externally.”
M. B. Glaser. 1982.